Forecast: Caribbean Netherlands will have 15 percent more inhabitants in 2030
By 2030, the islands of the Caribbean Netherlands (Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba) are expected to count a total population of 31.8 thousand. This is 15 percent more than in 2022. Just as in 2022, over half of the population will have been born either in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or Sint Maarten. By the year 2030, 19 percent of the population will be aged 65 years or older, compared to 14 percent in 2022. This is evident from CBS' population figures and population forecast for the Caribbean Netherlands.
As at 1 January 2022, the Caribbean Netherlands had 27.7 thousand residents, most of them living on Bonaire. Population growth is also expected to be strongest on Bonaire, as it has been since 2011. According to current projections, by 2030 the island will have 16 percent more residents than in 2022. An increase of 10 percent is projected for St Eustatius and 9 percent for Saba.
More residents born outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands in future
In the period 2018-2022, 55 percent of the Caribbean Netherlands’ residents were born there or on Aruba, Curaçao or Sint Maarten (together the six islands comprise the Dutch Caribbean). The share is projected to be 53 percent in 2030. Around 14 percent of residents were born in the European Netherlands and 31 percent elsewhere in 2018-2022; this is expected to become 13 and 34 percent respectively in 2030.
The largest decrease in the proportion of residents born in the Dutch Caribbean is expected on Bonaire, against a small increase on St Eustatius. Over 15 percent of Bonaire's population were born in the European Netherlands in 2018-2022, more than on St Eustatius and Saba. This is also expected to be the case in the future. Saba will then have a larger share of residents from outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands; Bonaire the smallest share.
The Caribbean Netherlands: ageing population
At the start of 2022, 14 percent of people living in the Caribbean Netherlands were 65 years or older. This was still 9 percent in 2011. The proportion of elderly people is expected to increase to 19 percent by 2030.
In 2022, Saba was the most rapidly ageing island with 16 percent of its population aged 65 or older. St Eustatius’ population was ageing the least (13 percent). By 2030, Bonaire is expected to be have aged the most (19 percent of the population aged 65 or over) and St Eustatius again the least (16 percent).
Most likely development and uncertainties
In order to accurately forecast the future development of the Caribbean Netherlands’ population, CBS uses a simulation model. Serving as the basis for projections are assumptions regarding births, deaths, immigration and emigration. In particular foreign migration, the main component of population development on the three islands, tends to develop erratically. Actual developments are therefore likely to differ from the forecast and the forecast figures are subject to uncertainties.
Caribbean Netherlands in Numbers 2022
In conjunction with this news release, a new edition of Trends in the Caribbean Netherlands is being launched as ‘The Caribbean Netherlands in Numbers 2022’. It contains the most important economic and social figures with respect to the Caribbean Netherlands. Dozens of topics, photographs and infographics offer readers a picture of the current situation on the islands. The publication is available both online as a longread and printed in limited edition.
Sources:
Publication – The Caribbean Netherlands in Numbers 2022
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/publicatie/2022/49/caribisch-nederland-in-cijfers-2022
Background - Population forecast, Caribbean Netherlands 2022-2050
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/achtergrond/2022/39/bevolkingsprognose-caribisch-nederland-2022-2050
News release - Population of the Caribbean Netherlands up by over 900
https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2022/17/population-of-the-caribbean-netherlands-up-by-over-900
News release - First study of well-being Caribbean Netherlands shows mixed picture